With a little over a month left before GOP voters hit the voting booths in February of next year, Donald Trump is running First Place in almost every Nationwide 2016 GOP Presidential Poll.
He currently boasts a 21% lead over Ted Cruz in the latest CNN Poll released today. Which is not much different than how Trump has been faring over the past few months. A Monmouth poll released earlier this month had him 27% over his closest competitor.
With all that being said, many in the mainstream media claim that he is still a long shot in getting the nod and winning the actual nomination for his party.
The Statistical Breakdown Of Why Donald Trump Has Very Good Odds Of Winning The 2016 GOP Nomination
Take a look at the figure on the right side.
These are the results of the republican primaries in 2012.
As you can see, Mitt Romney was the nominee and won with 10,031,336 total votes in the Republican Primary.
This number is about 1/6 of the size that he received in running against Barack Obama in the general election, in which he received just under
60 million votes.
Mathematically speaking, If you add up the total votes that every candidate received in the last republican primaries, you find out that more than half of Republican voters do not vote in the primaries!
That's a HUGE figure.
What Are Donald Trump's odds then?
The absolute truth is that no single candidate has very good odds to win. With so many candidates still competing in the race, the vote gets split up very broadly. This fact favors Donald Trump as many of the other candidates will split up the votes amongst themselves.
Donald Trump has also been campaigning very hard all over America. With crowds in the thousands at almost every stop.
He even has had many campaign stops with tens of thousands of supporters showing up. One particular stop in Mobile, Alabama had over 30,000 in attendance.
As far as the ground game goes: Donald Trump is in a huge lead which encourages voters to get up and vote in the primaries.
Donald Trump is leading in the polls by 21% with just over a month left before the voters head to the voters booth.
Donald Trump seems to have the best ground game out of all the Republican candidates, getting thousands of people energized at every campaign stop.
According to the 2012 Republican Primaries, Donald Trump should only need a figure of around 10,000,000 votes to secure the GOP nomination. (America's Voting population is roughly 150 million.)
Donald Trump supporters appear to be extremely loyal to him as well.
Heck, even Vegas is starting to favor a Donald Trump Nomination, and this is people gambling their hard-earned money on this...
Everything analytically speaking is starting to point to a Trump victory.
It's Donald Trump's GOP Nomination to lose, the numbers don't lie...